Veit Hagenmeyer (KIT) and Klaus Stierstorfer (University of Münster) receive Reinhart Koselleck project to critically analyze energy transition models and their impact

How does scientific modeling influence the energy transition and thus our future? Models and their presentation determine our thinking, but their foundations often remain invisible. The transdisciplinary research project "Poetics of Models" at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is investigating how we shape the future with energy transition models - and how we can communicate them more comprehensibly. Funded as a Reinhart Koselleck project by the German Research Foundation (DFG), it questions modeling practices in order to strengthen transparency, participation and inclusion in the transformation of the energy system.


Professor Veit Hagenmeyer is looking for solutions for a stable, economical and secure energy supply (Photo: Amadeus Bramsiepe, KIT)

"Our energy futures are designed in models - and these models are then used to make policy. But if we don't understand how these models work, then we have to believe what we are told. This is a dangerous situation," says Professor Veit Hagenmeyer, Head of the Institute for Automation and Applied Computer Science at KIT, explaining the need for a fundamental examination of current modeling practices for the energy transition. In the transdisciplinary research project "Poetics of Models", Hagenmeyer, together with literary scholars Professor Klaus Stierstorfer and Professor Matthias Erdbeer from the University of Münster, is investigating how energy transition models are not just technical calculations and constructions, but also narratives for shaping the future. The DFG is funding the research project as a Reinhart Koselleck project for highly innovative, high-risk research with one million euros over a period of five years.

Invisible premises of the energy transition models

Technical models are a central instrument of energy research. They calculate energy requirements, control supply networks and provide a basis for decision-making in politics and business. However, their basis often remains hidden: "Models are not neutral. They are based on assumptions about technological developments, political framework conditions and human behavior. Many of these assumptions remain invisible," explains Hagenmeyer. This invisibility can lead to scientific findings either being accepted uncritically or questioned across the board. The aim of the project is, on the one hand, to reveal the hidden mechanisms of model building and to work out which narrative patterns are hidden in energy transition models. On the other hand, to find new ways to make energy transition models more transparent, participatory and inclusive.

Professor Armin Grunwald, Director of the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) at KIT and the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag, was an important source of inspiration for this new approach: "In policy consulting, for example for the German Bundestag, we often need models. To do this, we need to understand these models, especially in terms of their assumptions and premises. Otherwise, this can lead to skewed advice and inappropriate political decisions," he says. In addition to Grunwald, Professor Daniel Lang, also from ITAS, is a partner in the project. His expertise in real-world laboratory research complements the transdisciplinary perspective and helps to ensure that the social dimension of the energy transition is fully taken into account.

KIT real-world laboratories involved

In order to ensure that model assumptions are not only scientifically convincing, but also successful in practice, research today attempts to simulate future energy systems under conditions that are as realistic as possible. With real-world laboratories for energy transition research - such as the Energy Lab, Europe's largest research infrastructure for renewable energies, or the Karlsruhe Real-World Laboratory for Sustainable Climate Protection for a Participatory Energy Transition - KIT has created an extensive infrastructure for this purpose, which is now being directly integrated into the research project. "The project is therefore not only investigating the assumptions behind energy transition models, but also how real-world laboratories function as places for scientific and social negotiation of these models," explains Hagenmeyer. "Real-world laboratories are testing grounds for technical scenarios and as such are now themselves the subject of scientific analysis: How does the way they are presented influence the understanding of the models implemented there? What narratives emerge when citizens interact with these models?"

Reducing reservations about the energy transition

"The energy transition is not only a technical challenge, but also a narrative one," emphasizes Hagenmeyer. The "Poetics of Models" research project therefore goes beyond the technical issues of transforming the energy system. It starts precisely where reservations about the energy transition arise: in the communication between science, politics and society about a desirable future. "As long as people are unable to understand how energy future scenarios are created, public discourse will remain characterized by uncertainty, mistrust and simplified demands. Our project aims to reduce these uncertainties and show new ways in which science, politics and society can jointly develop viable energy concepts. Because we can only actively shape the future if we understand the models of the future," says Hagenmeyer. (mhe)